If the traditional sports indicators for presidential elections hold true this year, Hillary Clinton will prevail. Of course, this campaign has been completely untraditional, which provides hope for Donald Trump.
The two usual standards are the Redskins Rule and the World Series Rule. But this year the World Series Game 7 Rule comes into play for the first time since 1972. Obviously this is all about happenstance, and there is nothing scientific at work. But the success rate is uncanny.
Redskins Rule: 89.5 percent
World Series Rule: 73.7 percent
World Series Game 7 Rule: 100 percent
Here's how the rules work:
Redskins. If the Redskins win their last home game before the presidential election, then the incumbent party retains the White House. If the Redskins lose, then the incumbent party is voted out.
Barack Obama and Clinton are Democrats, and this year the Redskins beat the Eagles 27-20 on October 16. That is a little earlier than usual for the last home game before the election. But the Redskins' next two games were on the road, and then they had a bye.
Steve Hirdt of the Elias Sports Bureau is responsible for the Redskins Rule. He developed it in 2000 while doing research in advance of the Monday Night Football game between the Redskins and Titans in Washington a week before the election.
While the overall percentage of this rule, which dates back to 1940, favors Clinton, Trump should take note that two of the previous three elections have bucked the trend.
World Series. If an American League team wins the World Series, then the Republican wins the election. If a National League team wins, then it's good news for the Democratic candidate.
With the Cubs winning, Clinton, being a Chicago native, may get a double celebration.
This rule was confirmed in the past four elections. But here's something that might be worth noting: Two of the times this rule failed? Bill Clinton was involved.
These are the results, based on the same time frame as the Redskins Rule, starting with 1940.
World Series Game 7. This uses the same correlation of AL=Republican and NL=Democrat but isolates it to years in which there was a Game 7. It has happened eight times before this year. Veteran political analyst Ken Rudin is credited as its creator.
The 1912 World Series featured a Game 7, but isn't included because there was actually a Game 8 that year between the Red Sox and Giants. One of the previous games was a tie, which prompted the need for the eighth game.
