If you think horse racing experts and handicappers have one up on you this weekend, think again.

The Kentucky Derby, annually held on the first Saturday in May, is the hardest horse race in America to handicap for about a million reasons.

For starters, the Derby features the largest field (20) we'll see all year in a major thoroughbred race. (For the non-horse racing fans, 10 is generally considered a big field for a race so with 20 things get crowded, fast -- kind of like the Yankees' injury report.)

As 3-year-olds, almost all of the horses have raced less than a handful of times in their brief career. All will be racing the mile and a quarter length for the first time in front of 165,000 high-spirited spectators at Churchill Downs screaming their heads off.

I could go on. And on. And on.

But for those planning on throwing a few bucks down, we've come up with a simple and succinct handicapping guide for your betting pleasure. Follow these guidelines and reap the rewards:

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Who were the Ship It Holla Ballas? Arguably the most successful poker crew of all time, they took advantage of the online poker boom to win tens of millions of dollars before most of them were old enough to set foot inside a casino. Then they did what any red-blooded teenagers with mountains of cash and no responsibilities would do: They partied like rock stars, transforming themselves from Internet nerds with zero life skills into legends, at least in their own minds. In this excerpt from Ship It Holla Ballas!, this group of teenage college dropouts, united by social media, head to Bahamas for a caper.

PARADISE ISLAND, BAHAMAS (May 2006)

It's been three years since Chris Moneymaker's victory at the World Series of Poker, but the poker economy, powered by recreational players with dreams of winning millions on TV, shows no signs of slowing down. Online poker rooms host around-the-clock satellites and super-satellites -- inexpensive tournaments whose winners gain admission into tournaments with much bigger entry fees. The swell of new entrants inflates the prize pool, which in turn attracts even more attention from amateurs hoping to become the next Moneymaker. They are participating in what economists call a "virtuous circle," a feedback loop that builds its own positive momentum. By 2006, the circle has become so culturally entrenched as to have earned a nickname from the mainstream media: the "poker boom."

The World Series of Poker still rules in terms of prestige, but it only happens once a year. Upstarts such as the World Poker Tour and the European Poker Tour fill the void with a new business model: Smaller, lesser-known tournaments get aggregated and packaged into television-friendly "seasons" culminating in championships. The virtuous circle spins a few more times. Where the WSOP Main Event used to be the only tournament with a $10,000 buy-in and a seven-figure prize for the winner, now there are dozens.

When the online cardrooms aren't feeding players into live tournaments, they're creating tournaments of their own. In 2002, Party Poker hosted the inaugural Party Poker Million aboard a cruise ship on the Mexican Riviera. The event was a hit—one year later, the World Poker Tour added the Party Poker Million II to its first season's schedule. In its second season, the WPT added a tournament in Aruba sponsored by Ultimate Bet and a tournament aboard a Caribbean-bound cruise ship hosted by PokerStars.

The Caribbean theme isn't coincidental -- by hosting their events on tropical islands or cruise ships, the online cardrooms can skirt U.S. law and allow players as young as 18, their bread-and butter-clientele, to play in the kind of tournaments they grew up watching on TV. It's why Paradise Poker chooses the Atlantis, an enormous resort and water park on the Bahamas' Paradise Island, to host its first ever brick-and-mortar tournament: "The Conquest of Paradise Island."

The Conquest fails to secure any TV coverage or commitments from well-known pros -- in the months leading up to the event, there's some speculation whether it will even take place. But the allure of lax gambling and drinking laws in a tropical setting is enough for the tournament to attract over 300 players, a large percentage of whom are under 21.

Good2cu, Apathy, and DonButtons fly there from Miami. Raptor, durrrr, Deuce2High, Bonafone, TheUsher, and FieryJustice meet them at the resort. They're buzzed before the first round of boat drinks even hits their lips -- for most of them, this is the biggest tournament they've ever entered.

Only durrrr can laugh off the $5,000 entry fee. While the rest of them are still devoting most of their attention to Sit N Gos, durrrr is regularly playing in the biggest cash games on the Internet. He probably shouldn't be – any old-school player would scoff at his horrendous bankroll management, which sees him routinely flirt with going broke – but what does he have to lose? He's 19 years old, has no wife or kids to support, is blessed with an active intelligence, and is fully capable of returning to college if the whole poker thing doesn't work out.

Why wouldn't he take shots at the biggest games? When he loses – an inevitability for even the best poker players – he simply drops down to a game with smaller stakes, rebuilds his bankroll, and waits for the chance to take another shot. But when he wins…. No one's sure exactly how much money durrrr has, as it's an ever-changing number, but for several brief stretches lately he's been, at least according to the pixels on the screen, a millionaire.

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Books, Poker

At this point, Ricky Jay Fredricks might have more riding on the Florida Gulf Coast Eagles than anyone who isn't actually on the team.

Fredricks, a casino host for a major Las Vegas hotel, told ESPN that his roommate recently owed him $5. Instead of taking the cash, Fredericks told his roommate to put money down on an NCAA tournament team.

Luckily for both men, Fredericks' roommate chose Florida Gulf Coast.

Fredericks said his roommate decided to wager $10 on the Eagles, with the idea being that the two would split the profit if the No. 15 seed got to the Final Four.

And now, after two improbable victories, Fredericks and his friend are 80 excrutiating minutes of basketball away from a $10,000 payday.

"My roommate placed a bunch of bets, and this is just the one he randomly gave me," Fredricks told ESPN. "I don't think he intended for them to actually win. He has a much larger bet on Florida [FGCU's opponent on Friday] to win the championship, as well as a large wager on the field bet."

A representative from the Las Vegas Hotel and Casino Superbook confirmed to ESPN that Fredericks' slip was the only 1,000-to-1 ticket it sold on FGCU.

"It's a fun sweat for good friends," Fredricks told ESPN. "Five thousand for five dollars. Would be a nice return on investment."

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The Green Bay Packers weren't the only losers after that unforgettable Monday Night Football game in September.

Boxing champion Floyd Mayweather, a noted gambler, admitted to Jim Rome this week that he was set back $900,000 after the replacement referees ruled the final play of the Packers-Seahawks game a touchdown rather than an interception.

As you may remember, Seattle wide receiver Golden Tate looked to come down with the ball on the game's wild final play. But on review it appears the throw should have been ruled an interception. The blown call resulted in a $300 million swing in Las Vegas.

When asked how upset he was with the call made by the replacement referees, Mayweather shrugged it off.

"It comes with a territory," he said..

Mayweather, no stranger to the sports book, said that was the biggest loss of his life. He also told Rome that his largest winning ticket was around $1.1 million or $1.2 million.

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Lance Armstrong's interview with Oprah next week is shaping up to be one of the most anticipated athlete interviews in recent memory.

Recent reports suggest that Armstrong is considering an admission of using banned performance-enhancing drugs, but whether if he'll do it during the Oprah interview and how he'll reveal it is anyone's guess.

If you think you know what Armstrong will say, you could make a pretty penny. That's because the British bookmaker Ladbrokes is now taking bets on words and phrases that the cyclist will utter during the interview.

Do you think Armstrong will say 'Never tested positive,' 'confess' and/or 'innocent'? Even odds. Meanwhile the phrase 'British Press/media' and the name of Armstrong's former teammate, Floyd Landis, are longer odds (both at 4/1).

Via Cycling Weekly, here's the complete list:

--Sorry (1/4)
--Apologize (1/4)
--Confess (even)
--Conspiracy (1/2)
--Innocent (even)
--David Walsh (2/1)
--Paul Kimmage (2/1)
--Sunday Times (4/1)
--British Press/media (4/1)
--Witch hunt (2/1)
--Integrity (6/4)
--Never tested positive (even)
--Livestrong (1/4)
--Team Sky (8/1)
--Bradley Wiggins (4/1)
--Sir David Brailsford (8/1)
--USADA (4/6)
--WADA (6/4)
--Tour de France (1/8)
--Floyd Landis (4/1)
--Tyler Hamilton (6/4)
--George Hincapie (4/1)
--Johan Bruyneel (4/1)
--Dr. Michele Ferrari (5/6)
--EPO (6/4)

(H/T to Game On!)

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If it seems like gamblers have been taking home especially large winnings this year, or nearly taking home especially large winnings, that's because this has been one of the worst NFL seasons for Las Vegas bookies in recent memory.

As Lance Pugmire writes in the Los Angeles Times, popular NFL teams like the New England Patriots, Denver Broncos and the Green Bay Packers routinely beat the point spread during the regular season. The large and loyal fanbases who bet routinely on those teams raked in money this fall at the expense of sports books in Las Vegas.

And to make matters worse, more fans are multiplying their winnings by entering parlays.

Some of the explanation for these increased earnings is that fans are privy to more information than they were 10 or 20 years ago. But Jay Kornegay, who is in charge of the Las Vegas Hotel & Casino's Race and Sports book, says that doesn't account for all of Las Vegas' losses.

"We know the general public now has tremendous sources of information, that the regular player is sharper than the guy 10 years ago," Kornegay told the Los Angeles Times. "But we've never seen a streak like this before."

Perhaps the worst week of the year was Week 9, when Vegas-backed underdogs finished 2-10 against the point spread and seven games went over the projected points-scored line. Losses were so large on that day that MGM Resorts, the largest sports bookmaker in Las Vegas, had to retrieve emergency cash to pay off losses.

And things might get much worse in the playoffs. Teams like the Seattle Seahawks and Indianapolis Colts proved bookies wrong, overcoming long odds to make the playoffs. And if either the Seahawks (75-1 odds) or the Colts (200-1 odds) was to win the Super Bowl, Las Vegas would be in trouble.

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Betting, NFL

If we've learned one thing about Floyd Mayweather's gambling tendencies, it's that he works in mysterious ways.

The world champion boxer has put down money on some questionable lines in the past, but somehow he always seems to come out on top.

And it appears that "Money" Mayweather stayed true to his nickname and took home some more dough after Golden State's last-second win in Miami.

Mayweather was at Wednesday's game, and he must have been pretty pleased with the result, which was a 97-95 win for the Warriors as rookie Draymond Green scored on a layup with 0.9 seconds left.

In a post-game interview, Warriors guard Jarrett Jack said Mayweather revealed to him that he won $100,000 thanks to Golden State's victory.

"Floyd Mayweather put a little bug in my ear, told me he put a little bet in on us," Jack told Comcast SportsNet Bay Area. "Floyd is no stranger to the casino. He told me he won $100,000 on us."

If that is true, Mayweather deserves some serious props for calling the upset, although it is not clear whether he bet against the spread or straight up on the moneyline. It's normally not advisable to bet against the defending NBA champion, especially when that team has lost just one home game all year, but kudos to Mayweather for his excellent prognostication.

Even Jack was stunned to hear the news.

"I couldn't believe it," Jack said. "It was crazy."

(H/T to Off the Bench)

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In the grand scheme of things, Damaris Johnson's 98-yard punt return against the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday didn't mean much. True, it made the final score closer with about 30 seconds to play, but it didn't ultimately affect the game's outcome. The Cowboys pulled out the win, 38-33.

But Johnson's touchdown did make an enormous difference for gamblers everywhere. Because the spread on the game was 9.5 points, Johnson's score provided a dramatic swing in Las Vegas.

Business Insider has the story of one extremely unlucky person who dropped $50 on an eight-team NFL parlay. This gambler nailed the first seven games, and just needed the Cowboys to hold onto their 11-point lead in order to cash in on a roughly $18,500 prize.

Maybe it's for the best that the Eagles pulled within 10 points. After all, this person had gotten extremely lucky with some earlier results. He or she correctly picked two overtime games and another contest that came down to a last-second touchdown.

Here's the entire parlay:

Seattle +4 (beat Chicago in overtime, 23-17)
Green Bay - 6.5 (beat Minnesota, 23-14)
St. Louis straight up on money line (beat San Francisco in overtime, 16-13)
Arizona +7 (lost to the New York Jets, 7-6)
Indianapolis straight up on money line (beat Detroit, 35-33)
New England -6.5 (beat Miami, 23-16)
Denver -6.5 (beat Tampa Bay, 31-23)
Dallas -9.5 (beat Philadelphia, 38-33)

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A few weeks ago we brought you the story of a man who bet $100 on a 23-game parlay and came away with $25,772.

Another man must have seen that story and thought, "Anything you can do, I can do better."

So this new guy, let's call him Parlay Person No. 2, dropped $105 on two groupings at BetOnline. And the website Beyond the Bets is reporting that Parlay Person No. 2 more than doubled the original man's earnings.

First, Parlay Person No. 2 put down $100 on these 10 teams:

Tampa Bay Buccaneers pk (+105) over Oakland Raiders (covered by 10)
Chicago Bears -3.5 (-105) over Tennessee Titans (covered by 27.5)
Denver Broncos -4 over Cincinnati Bengals (covered by 4)
Houston Texans -10 over Buffalo Bills (covered by 2)
Oregon -8.5 over USC (covered by 2.5)
Kansas State -8 over Oklahoma State (covered by 6)
Clemson -12.5 over Duke (covered by 23.5)
Penn State -3.5 over Purdue (covered by 21.5)
Texas A&M -6.5 over Mississippi State (covered by 18.5)
Stanford -28 over Colorado (covered by 20)

Then, the man wagered $5 more on these 11 games. Nine are the same, except in the second parlay the man removed Oregon and added the Baltimore Ravens and Oklahoma.

Baltimore Ravens -3.5 over Cleveland Browns (covered by 6.5)
Oklahoma -12 over Iowa State (covered by 13)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers pk (+105) over Oakland Raiders (covered by 10)
Chicago Bears -3.5 (-105) over Tennessee Titans (covered by 27.5)
Denver Broncos -4 over Cincinnati Bengals (covered by 4)
Houston Texans -10 over Buffalo Bills (covered by 2)
Kansas State -8 over Oklahoma State (covered by 6)
Clemson -12.5 over Duke (covered by 23.5)
Penn State -3.5 over Purdue (covered by 21.5)
Texas A&M -6.5 over Mississippi State (covered by 18.5)
Stanford -28 over Colorado (covered by 20)

So Parlay Person No. 2 nailed 21 games and came home with more than $65,000. His predecessor hit 23 and won just $25,772 because the bets were made on the money line, meaning no point spreads were involved.

(H/T to Business Insider)

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Betting, NCAAF, NFL

The final table of the World Series of Poker begins Monday as nine players compete for more than $26 million with first place taking home $8.5 million. Will it be skill, luck or "The Secret" -- The Law of Attraction -- that determines the winner?

Here's a clue. One day I was playing $20-$40 Omaha Hi-Lo at Hollywood Park Casino and negative energy was radiating off this Dougie Downer like bracelets off Phil Ivey's wrists. I was sitting to his left and he showed me his hand: A-A-2-3 double-suited (the best possible starting hand). With one card left to come out, there was $400 in the pot and Dougie had a monster.

A bit under his breath but still loud enough for the other players to hear, he said, "How am I going to get screwed this time?"

You see, he was expecting to lose. You could argue that he was begging to lose. And as if it wasn't enough to give off non-verbal tells, he was now giving his opponents, including a sharp player named Mo, a verbal one as well.

The last card was bad, though not necessarily fatal, for Dougies hand. Instead of keeping a poker face, Dougie looked like he got his bell rung by a blitzing Clay Matthews. Mo, who was watching Dougie instead of the cards (as most expert poker players do), bet $40. Dougie grimaced like a torture victim while he deliberated. He then turned his cards face up to show everyone how unlucky he was. There was now $440 in the pot, giving Dougie 11 to 1 odds to make what I think is an easy call.

Dougie was too caught up in emotion, plus his subconscious was sabotaging his success. Instead of making the smart mathematical play and seeing the bet, he folded and screamed, "See! If you had any doubt that I'm the unluckiest player in the world, there is my proof!"

I later asked Mo outside if he had Dougie's hand beat. He smiled and said, “It was a flat-out bluff. But with the look on Dougie's face, he conceded the pot."

Mo got what he wanted for that hand (the pot) and for the day (a winning session). Dougie got what he wanted as well: To make his case to anyone who will listen that he is the unluckiest person in the world. Life finds way to confirm what you believe. Show me a player who keeps stats on how unlucky he is and I'll show you a player who soon will be asking you for a loan.

My advice to the final nine at the WSOP is the same as it is for any poker player. Start by thinking and acting in ways that make you feel like you are lucky and a winner. Money follows money; and chips follow chips, so always make sure you sit down in a game with plenty of ammo. On the emotional side, don't bother to play if you're feeling squeezed. In April, the uncertainty of how much I owed in taxes was hanging over me so I took a break until I heard from my accountant. Fear and scarcity are feelings I never want to bring to a poker game.

Another thing that creates a feeling of scarcity is rooting against others. When you have feelings of envy or hate toward others, it's your mind's way of saying there’s not enough left for you. Like Dougie, many poker players are guilty of Schadenfreude, the German word for malicious joy in the misfortunes of others. It's a loser's mentality, since begrudging the success of others is the surest way not to get what they have. If you want Phil Ivey's bracelets or his bankroll, study him. Don't root against him.

In poker, it's not enough to want or wish for success. You have to feel it and believe it to attract it. In subtle and not so subtle ways, your opponents pick up on your vibe and act accordingly. Poker players (and potential romantic partners) can sense desperation. In Dougie's case, his deep-seated belief that he's unlucky attracts situations in which he's unlucky -- even when he has the best hand.

I'll let author Wayne Dyer offer the final word to the final nine as well as all the aspiring poker champions out there. "I have a little bit of a different take on The Secret. We don't attract what we want. We attract what we are."

-- Greg Dinkin is a Certified Health Coach and author of three books including The Poker MBA and Amarillo Slim's memoir. He won $102,542 at the 2006 World Series of Poker and explains in his TED talk how he used the power of both mind and body to lose 100 pounds.

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