Dear Wisconsin fans,
Here's why your team is overrated, wrongly ranked, and is going to lose to BYU on Saturday.
Wisconsin is defeated against BYU in its history. Not undefeated, defeated. Meaning the high and mighty Badgers have never beaten BYU in their school history. Granted, it's been one game, but the average margin of defeat is 25 points thanks to a 28-3 BYU win in 1980. I'm not sure Badger fans would know how to feel if Wisconsin got lucky enough to beat BYU.
Gary Andersen, your head coach, is 1-3 against Bronco Mendenhall. Meaning Bronco beats Gary 75 percent of the time. Andersen is a born and raised Utah product, so BYU is very familiar with him and his weaknesses as a coordinator and head coach. He's nothing new to BYU's coaching staff.
Wisconsin's offensive coordinator, Andy Ludwig, came from San Diego State, which BYU dominated for years in the MWC. Beating Gary Andersen- and Andy Ludwig-coached teams has been almost a yearly tradition for Bronco Mendenhall.
Why Wisconsin is overrated and wrongly ranked:
First of all, almost doesn't cut it. Almost beating Arizona State and almost beating Ohio State means nothing. Losses are losses. Moral victories don't count. Just ask Coach Andersen. In BYU's last seven losses, six of them were by an average margin of 3.8 points. If "ifs" and "buts" were candy and nuts, we'd all have a Merry Christmas.
According to ESPN, Wisconsin's strength of schedule ranking is No. 52. BYU's is No. 12.
The combined record of the opponents Wisconsin has beaten is 17-36 (.320). The average win-loss record of their opponents is 3-6. The combined record of the opponents BYU has beaten is 30-17 (.638). The average win-loss record of their opponents being 6-3.
Only one team Wisconsin has beaten currently has a winning record. All six of the teams BYU has beaten have winning records.
Wisconsin is 1-2 against teams that currently have a winning record. BYU is 6-0 against such teams.
Exactly zero of the teams Wisconsin has beaten are bowl eligible. Four of the six teams BYU has beaten are bowl eligible. Wisconsin's best wins are against Iowa (5-4) and Northwestern (4-5). BYU's best wins are against Houston (7-1), Texas (6-2), Georgia Tech (6-3), and Boise State (6-3).
Knowing these realities, how Wisconsin is ranked ahead of BYU is beyond me. "Bias" is the only word that comes to mind.
I can hear some Wisconsin fans saying, "Well, look at how good our stats are offensively and defensively and look at how good Melvin Gordon and Chris Borland are." I will politely say, well, who have you beaten? Teams that currently have an average record of 3-6? One team that has a winning record? Stats are always inflated when competition you've played against is weak. That's football and it's reality.
You've lost to the only two legitimately good teams you've played this year. Make it three on Saturday.
You better hope Jared Abbrederis and Chris Borland are healthy for the game or else this might not only be a loss, but it could get ugly.
You're not facing a 3-6 team that isn't bowl eligible this week like you're used to. Nope, not even close.