As the 2015 NFL draft approaches, franchises are putting the highest premium on character ever. The traumas that Aaron Hernandez, Ray Rice, Greg Hardy and Adrian Peterson created for their teams sent a chill up the spine of NFL front office executives.
When a player is disqualified for a season or his career for off-the-field issues the consequences can be disastrous for a team. The team loses the part of the signing bonus that is apportioned to the games or years missed, and that amortized bonus counts against the cap. This means that the team not only loses the services of the player, but also there is then not enough cap available to adequately replace him.
Predicting the propensity of a draftee to have later issues with behavior is a process fraught with peril. Team investigators are sifting through investigations into prospective draftees past behavior all the way back to elementary school days. They are interviewing friends and coaches to get a full picture. They do exhaustive searches for arrests or charges. If a player has incidents in his past it still doesn't mean he will not have a productive career. He may have learned from his problems and straightened out his behavior. But what if he is a ticking time bomb?
Is there an objective ability to test for future difficulties? Dave Blanchard of the Og Mandino group has tested players with a psychological protocol that has been effective in spotting problematic tendencies. This gives teams a chance to either avoid drafting a player, or to take him understanding there is extra work and caution needed. Having an effective diagnostic tool is critical.
There are a number of players with red flags from their past, and it will be interesting to see how it affects the players' draft status. Florida State QB Jameis Winston carries incidents involving alleged sexual assault, theft and campus disruption in his past. For Tampa Bay, this is a make or break draft and they have done extensive due diligence in projecting Winston as a pro.
Nebraska DE Randy Gregory tested positive for marijuana at the combine. The presence of drugs in a draftee's system at the combine is seen as a test also of IQ and discipline. USC cornerback Josh Shaw falsified a story about his injured ankle where he claimed to be rescuing a drowning relative by jumping off a balcony. Washington CB Marcus Peters had problems with the coaching staff and left the program. Oklahoma WR Dorial Green-Beckham has past allegations of violence against women.
At the scouting combine, teams have the opportunity to conduct interview sessions with a player and their coaches and general managers. Teams can fly up to 30 players in for visits this month. There is ample opportunity to ask players to explain their pasts. Adolescence is a time where we all have made less than stellar decisions. We don't want to throw young men on the trash heap of history for an incident they have made amends for and learned from. Behavioral prediction is a tricky proposition -- this is the most scrutinized group of draftees in the history of the NFL. No one wants to make a mistake.
-- Leigh Steinberg has represented many of the most successful athletes and coaches in football, basketball, baseball, hockey, boxing and golf, including the first overall pick in the NFL draft an unprecedented eight times, among more than 60 first-round selections. His clients have included Hall of Fame quarterbacks Steve Young, Troy Aikman and Warren Moon, and he served as the inspiration for the movie "Jerry Maguire." Follow him on Twitter @leighsteinberg.
The 10 Players Drafted Before J.J. Watt In 2011
1. CAM NEWTON, CAROLINA PANTHERS
Few people enjoy the trifecta Newton enjoyed starting in his last season at Auburn. The quarterback won the Heisman Trophy and then led the school to a BCS Championship before the Panthers picked him first overall.
1. CAM NEWTON, CAROLINA PANTHERS
Newton may not be as elite a player as Watt, but it's hard to argue with Carolina taking him with the top pick. He's a two-time Pro Bowler who led the Panthers to the second round of the playoffs last year.
2. VON MILLER, DENVER BRONCOS
Like Newton, Von Miller had a strong track record coming out of college. He was a two-time AP All-American who led the NCAA in sacks in 2009.
2. VON MILLER, DENVER BRONCOS
Miller actually won the NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year award over Watt in 2011. The one blemish on his resume came in 2013, when he missed the first six games of the NFL season to serve a suspension for allegedly trying to cheat on a drug test. But on the field, Miller has shined, making the Pro Bowl twice.
3. MARCELL DAREUS, BUFFALO BILLS
Combining size with surprising speed, Marcell Dareus was a nightmare for anyone facing Alabama's defensive line. The defensive end was a sight to see when picking up a fumble and running it back at an impressive clip.
3. MARCELl DAREUS, BUFFALO BILLS
Darueus brought that dominance into the NFL, where he's a star player on an underrated Buffalo defense. Despite having legal troubles involving guns and controlled substances, Dareus was a 2013 Pro Bowl selection.
4. A.J. GREEN, CINCINNATI BENGALS
Standing 6-foot-4, Green was a star from day one at Georgia, using his length to dominate the opposition en route to two straight All-SEC team selections.
4. A.J. GREEN, CINCINNATI BENGALS
But one could argue Green is even more dominant in the NFL, accumulating 30 touchdowns in his short career while earning three straight Pro Bowl selections.
5. PATRICK PETERSON, ARIZONA CARDINALS
Peterson's 2010 season at LSU was truly special. As a sparkplug for the Tigers' defensive and special teams units, Peterson was a unanimous All-America choice, as well as winner of the Thorpe Award and Bednarik Award.
5. PATRICK PETERSON, ARIZONA CARDINALS
In the NFL, little has changed. Peterson still stars regularly on defense and special teams, and he's become one of the most renowned cornerbacks in the league.
6. JULIO JONES, ATLANTA FALCONS
Jones earned acclaim at Alabama as a rare true freshman starter on the team. He developed into one of the team's most reliable stars on a team that won the BCS Championship in 2010.
6. JULIO JONES, ATLANTA FALCONS
Playing opposite receiver Roddy White, Jones has had an exceptional career. In 2012, he made the Pro Bowl thanks to a 1,200-yard, 10-touchdown season.
7. ALDON SMITH, SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
Aldon Smith was a big contributor at Missouri since he was a freshman, when he won the Big 12 Freshman of the Year award.
7. ALDON SMITH, SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
Smith started just as quickly in the NFL, setting the 49ers' rookie sack record and winning NFC Defensive Player of the Year in 2012. But after a run-in with TSA at an airport, during which he allegedly became belligerent, Smith was handed a nine-game suspension for this season.
8. JAKE LOCKER, TENNESSEE TITANS
Locker was considered an excellent pro prospect in college, where he led Washington while running a pro-style offense and displaying accurate throwing and strong footwork.
8. JAKE LOCKER, TENNESSEE TITANS
But Locker's career with Tennessee has been a roller coaster, with flashes of brilliance weighed down by injuries and poor decision-making. Without more consistent play, Locker's time as a starter might be winding down.
9. TYRON SMITH, DALLAS COWBOYS
At USC, Smith became one of college football's best lineman while protecting Trojan quarterbacks that also went to the NFL.
9. TYRON SMITH, DALLAS COWBOYS
In Dallas, Smith has evolved into a reliable Pro Bowl lineman. His service is one reason the Cowboys have jumped out to a fast start this season.
10. BLAINE GABBERT, JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
Gabbert was an electric quarterback in college, where he displayed great ground speed to go with a beautiful throwing motion.
10. BLAINE GABBERT, JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
But Gabbert didn't translate to the NFL game. He struggled with timing and comfort in the pocket and lost his starting job last season. This past NFL draft, the Jaguars selected Blake Bortles to start their QB project anew.
11. J.J. WATT, HOUSTON TEXANS
J.J. Watt was already a monster in college. After two years at Central Michigan, Watt transferred to Wisconsin, where he won the Lott Trophy in 2010.
11. J.J. WATT, HOUSTON TEXANS
But you could make a strong argument that Watt has been even better in the NFL. This year alone, he's scored three touchdowns -- a remarkable feat for a defensive end.
